January 27, 2023

What is humanity’s CO2 budget? What will be the consequences of climate change in Chile in the coming decades? Or, what has our country done to combat the climate crisis?

Before addressing these questions, we must recognize our reality: we will not stop emitting CO2 in the short or medium term. Therefore, reducing our emissions requires implementing measures to compensate for them. This compensation must be cost-effective; otherwise, it will be very difficult to scale to the level necessary to achieve the desired impact. So: how do we offset our emissions to reach net zero while simultaneously generating value?

First, let us ask ourselves how many emissions we need to offset.

According to the scientific community, global warming would not exceed 1.5°C if no more than 510 gigatons of additional CO2 are emitted (1 gigaton equals one billion tons). If we allow the Earth to warm up to 2°C instead, the number increases to 890 gigatons. Can we stay within these limits on the path to net zero emissions? Unlikely.

Imagine for a moment that we only consider the operation—until the end of its useful life—of the current infrastructure based on fossil fuels. This infrastructure would emit 660 gigatons of CO2. If we also consider all comparable infrastructure under construction, approved, or planned, total emissions would increase to 850 gigatons. In other words, we have no budget for additional CO2 emissions.

Could it be that the consequences of the climate crisis are not so catastrophic?

Global warming of up to 1.5°C in the coming decades will lead to an increase in the frequency, severity, and duration of extreme weather events. Chile will face growing risks to water and food security due to extreme droughts and the degradation of coastal ecosystems, not to mention the damage caused by floods, landslides, coastal erosion, and more.

In this scenario, can we create economic value as we reduce emissions?

Chile is responsible for relatively low emissions—about 0.3% of global emissions—but is a regional leader in climate action. The country adhered to the Paris Agreement, committing to reducing CO2 emissions under the UN framework, and is ranked among the top 20 countries in the “climate protection” indicator by the organization. This positions us well to implement actions that create significant value.

Mitigation actions costing $100 per ton or less can reduce half of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. In fact, measures costing $20 per ton or less represent more than half of this potential, and their implementation typically generates savings. What does this mean? It refers to the large-scale deployment of photovoltaic solar and wind energy, as well as energy efficiency and similar measures.

Innovation is not far behind. The use of clean fuels, such as green hydrogen or synthetic hydrocarbons, could reduce emissions by up to 2 gigatons per year starting in 2030, with competitive prices in the medium and long term. For this reason, considering the magnitude of the task and the potential for value creation, the Energy Transition Center of Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez invites everyone to explore disruptive ideas and dare to innovate.

Read the article on El Mostrador.