May 16, 2025

 

While sodium batteries are gaining ground due to their lower cost and greater abundance, experts assert that lithium still holds key advantages in essential applications. In an exclusive interview with InfoMINERÍA, they agree that lithium’s prominence is not at risk for the time being.

The announcement of sodium batteries by manufacturers such as CATL, the world’s largest battery producer, has sparked expectations and speculations about a possible replacement of lithium in the race for the energy transition.

The widespread adoption of sodium, a more abundant and cheaper material, raises questions about lithium’s role in the future, particularly in producing countries like Chile.

In this context, attention has shifted back to technology, raising the question of whether, as sodium batteries progress, they could effectively replace lithium, what advantages they offer, and where their limitations lie.

Four specialists spoke exclusively to InfoMINERÍA, agreeing that sodium will not replace lithium, at least in the short and medium term. While they acknowledged its potential, they stressed that both resources serve different applications.

Eduardo Bitran: “I don’t see lithium being dispensed with”

Eduardo Bitrán, director of Codelco and professor at the Faculty of Engineering and Sciences of Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, stated that “lithium batteries have twice the energy density of sodium batteries, which means greater autonomy, less weight and volume, and shorter charging time.”

Furthermore, he pointed out that lithium has years of advantage in research and development. “Sodium batteries may have an advantage in stationary uses, where weight and volume are not critical. I do not see lithium being dispensed with, as it will maintain advantages in the light vehicle segment,” he said.

The former executive vice president of Corfo also pointed to other reasons for the disincentive to carry out BYD and Tsingshan projects in Chile. For him, the emergence of sodium batteries does not explain the withdrawal of both companies.

“I don’t think so. The fact that the Chilean State’s contract with SQM expires in 2030 should have been a fundamental factor in discouraging the development of these projects,” he stated.

This contractual limitation is compounded by a less favorable global scenario: “The short-term lithium shortage has decreased, and prices have dropped significantly, which must also have influenced since the main value of the contract was to ensure long-term supply,” he explained.

Given this context, the economist sees the cancellation of the projects as quite likely, although he opened the door to possible alternatives. “If the contract’s horizon is not extended, it is difficult for them to be resumed,” he assured.

As an option, he suggested that interested companies could explore new mechanisms to access Chilean lithium: “One option is to apply for the contract with Albemarle, which expires in 2043,” he proposed.

International Lithium Chamber sees sodium as a cheaper and more abundant option, but with lower capacity and durability

Pamela Goicovich, president of the International Lithium Chamber (CIL), stated that the “white gold” remains a key component for the development of electromobility.

“Not for now,” she firmly replied when asked about the possibility of sodium replacing lithium in the short and medium term. She explained that although these new batteries offer advantages such as lower cost and greater availability of raw materials, they still have lower capacity and lifespan compared to lithium batteries.

“That’s why lithium will continue to be very important in electric cars and demanding systems for several more years,” she assured. Nevertheless, Goicovich pointed out that there is no single solution: “The technical strategy requires diversity in specifications for each application; mobility batteries and industrial-scale batteries have very different performances,” she explained.

Regarding whether the emergence of sodium might have influenced BYD and Tsingshan’s decision to halt their lithium battery manufacturing projects in Chile, the representative remained cautious. “It is possible, but it would not be the only reason,” she suggested.

In her opinion, the withdrawal could also respond to other factors such as market conditions, changes in costs, or the country’s lack of regulatory clarity. “The introduction of sodium is one factor, but not the only one,” she said.

In fact, she recalled that the debate shifted when “the Chinese ambassador to Chile denied everything and said the project is still on track.”

Hermann González (Clapes UC): Lithium batteries are essential for electric vehicles and electronic devices

For Hermann González, macroeconomic coordinator at the research center Clapes UC and partner at Valtin Consulting, it is still early to discuss a possible “dispensing” of this strategic resource.

“For now, sodium batteries can replace lithium batteries in some functions, mainly related to large-scale storage, but not yet in electric vehicles or devices such as cell phones or computers,” the economist said.

However, he acknowledged that this technology “is advancing rapidly” and could become a more direct competitor if it improves its energy density and production scale.

Asked whether the progress of this alternative influenced BYD and Tsingshan’s decision to abandon their battery manufacturing projects in Chile, the expert offered a broader perspective. “I don’t see the sodium battery option as a critical factor, but it could be part of market changes, along with the drop in lithium prices and the development of substitutes,” he noted.

He added that Chinese interest in lithium remains strong, although that does not guarantee the reactivation of industrial initiatives in northern Chile. “Manufacturing batteries in our country requires special conditions to offset the distance from global production chains,” he said, stressing that without cost advantages, quick procedures, and efficient permits, it is simply not feasible.

He concluded that Chile still needs to close significant gaps in infrastructure, technical knowledge, and technological investment for a competitive battery industry at the international level.

Patricio Faúndez (GEM Mining): Lithium will maintain its role in a more diverse battery market

Patricio Faúndez, Country Manager of GEM Mining Consulting in Singapore, pointed out that the fear of lithium losing prominence is reminiscent of a critical episode: “The possibility of lithium losing relevance always evokes a past ghost: the nitrate crisis.”

However, he clarified that “the contexts are very different.” He explained that while the nitrate market was fragile, the lithium market “is moving towards near-perfect competition, with multiple players and incentives to innovate, not to replace it.”

Although he acknowledges the progress of sodium batteries, Faúndez is clear: “Lithium remains the best element in terms of energy density per weight,” adding that the industry has a mature infrastructure, economies of scale, and a well-established value chain.

He believes that rather than a replacement, what we will see is a “growing diversification of the battery market,” with technologies coexisting and specializing according to application.

Regarding the withdrawal of automotive companies, he pointed out that “the most immediate motivations seem to have been the complexity of Chile’s permitting system and the structural change in the lithium market.” Nonetheless, he acknowledged that sodium’s progress may have played a role. “It will be key to observe how and where BYD decides to invest in the coming months,” he affirmed.

He also warned that being the world’s second-largest producer is not enough and that Chile needs to import other essential inputs such as nickel, cobalt, and graphite. “Preferred prices offered through CORFO alone are not enough,” he concluded, calling for new incentives, infrastructure improvements, talent training, and simplification of the permitting system to ensure these projects not only restart but also thrive and add local value.